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E3 Journal of Environmental Research and Management

E3 Journal of Environmental Research and Management Vol. 3 (2) pp. 022-030, March 2012; © E3 Journals; ISSN 2141-7466

Random uncertain model for natural disaster risk management

Yingxiong Li * , Xiangyang Li
School of Economy and Management, Harbin Institution of Technology, Harbin, China.
*Corresponding Author E-mail: liyx0502@163.com
Accepted 22 January 2012

Abstract

This paper introduces the general natural disaster mechanism, defines the disaster factors, object at exposure, disaster environment and conditions. And then disaster factor model is developed to calculate the occurrence probability of the natural disaster, this model is a binary choice model, therefore coefficients estimation approach is logistic regression. The loss rate model is given to assess the exposure of the disaster; this model is a linear model. A case about snow & ice disaster appeared in four provinces of south china is studied; empirical distribution function of random variable is shown in this paper.

Keywords: Disaster factor model; disaster loss rate model; random uncertain variable; logistic regression; binary choice model

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