E3 Journal of Environmental Research and Management
E3 Journal of Environmental Research and Management Vol. 9 (1) pp. 011-019, April 2018; © E3 Journals; ISSN 2141-7466
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18685/EJERM(9)1_EJERM-17-019
Comparative analysis of Markov chain and cellular automated Markov models for forecasting forest depletion in Afaka forest reserve, Kaduna state, Nigeria
Olushola Michael OLANIYI 1 * , Benedine AKPU 1 , Edwin Osawe IGUISI 11 Department of Geography, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria
2 Department of Geography, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. benyb4real@yahoo.com
3 Department of Geography, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. ediguisi@yahoo.com
*Corresponding Author E-mail: olaniyiolushola@yahoo.com
Accepted 2 January 2018
Abstract
The rate of forest depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve is quite alarming; this study aims at a comparative analysis of Markov Chain model and Cellular Automata-Markov model in forecasting forest depletion in Afaka Forest Reserve. LandSat TM of 1990 and NigeriaSat-1 of 2009 were used for the analysis. The datasets were orthorectified, therefore no need for Geometric and Radiometric corrections. However, the datasets were georeferenced. Supervised image classification was used to group the pixels into land use/land cover types. Forecast of forest depletion for 2028 was done using Markov chain model and CA- Markov model in Idrisi Selva. Chi-square was used to test for significant difference between the results of the two predictive models. Forest forecast for 2028 using markov chain model shows that forest will reduce from 3724.25ha in 1973 to 3168.75ha in 2028. Using CA- markov the result revealed that forest cover will decrease to 3019.54ha by 2028. The Chi-Square test reveals a significant difference between the results of the two models.
Keywords: Forest depletion, Forest Reserve, Remote Sensing. GIS, Markov Chain model, CA- Markov model
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